Machine learning-based clinical decision support system for treatment recommendation and overall survival prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-center study.

The treatment decisions for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma are determined by a wide range of factors, and there is a significant difference between the recommendations of widely used staging systems and the actual initial treatment choices. Herein, we propose a machine learning-based clinical decision support system suitable for use in multi-center settings. We collected data from nine institutions in South Korea for training and validation datasets. The internal and external datasets included 935 and 1750 patients, respectively. We developed a model with 20 clinical variables consisting of two stages: the first stage which recommends initial treatment using an ensemble voting machine, and the second stage, which predicts post-treatment survival using a random survival forest algorithm. We derived the first and second treatment options from the results with the highest and the second-highest probabilities given by the ensemble model and predicted their post-treatment survival. When only the first treatment option was accepted, the mean accuracy of treatment recommendation in the internal and external datasets was 67.27% and 55.34%, respectively. The accuracy increased to 87.27% and 86.06%, respectively, when the second option was included as the correct answer. Harrell's C index, integrated time-dependent AUC curve, and integrated Brier score of survival prediction in the internal and external datasets were 0.8381 and 0.7767, 91.89 and 86.48, 0.12, and 0.14, respectively. The proposed system can assist physicians by providing data-driven predictions for reference from other larger institutions or other physicians within the same institution when making treatment decisions.

Non-linear association of baseline viral load with on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B.

OBJECTIVE: The association between baseline pretreatment serum HBV DNA levels and on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remains controversial in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to investigate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in CHB patients without cirrhosis. DESIGN: Using a multicentre historical cohort study including 4693 hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative and HBeAg-positive, adult CHB patients without cirrhosis who initiated antiviral treatment, HCC risk was estimated by baseline HBV viral load as a categorical variable. RESULTS: During a median of 7.6 years of antiviral treatment, 193 patients developed HCC (0.53 per 100 person- years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a non-linear, parabolic pattern. Patients with moderate baseline viral loads (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/mL) exhibited the highest HCC risk (HR, 2.60; p<0.001), followed by those with low viral loads (3.30-4.99 log10 IU/mL; HR, 1.66; p=0.11). Patients with high viral loads (≥8.00 log10 IU/mL) presented the lowest HCC risk. Particularly, patients with baseline HBV DNA levels 6.00-6.99 log10 IU/mL had the highest on-treatment HCC risk (HR, 3.36; p<0.001) compared with those with baseline HBV DNA levels≥8.00 log10 IU/mL. These findings were more prominent among HBeAg-positive patients, younger patients, or those with less advanced hepatic fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Patients with moderate baseline viral load, particularly around 6 log10 IU/mL, demonstrated the highest on-treatment HCC risk, despite long-term antiviral treatment. Early initiation of antiviral treatment, tailored to viral load, should be considered to minimise HCC risk in adult CHB patients without cirrhosis.

Hepatitis C Virus Seroprevalence in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Korea, 2012-2022: A Multicenter, Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in persons who inject drugs (PWID) in South Korea. The present study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of HCV antibodies, risk factors for HCV seropositivity, and HCV treatment status in PWID between January 2012 and May 2022. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 418 drug users who underwent HCV antibody testing in three hospitals caring for 90% of known PWID in South Korea, of whom 373 were PWID. RESULTS: The HCV seroprevalence was 39.7% (148/373) in PWID vs. 6.7% (3/45) in non-injection drug users (P < 0.001). Age ≥ 40 years, hospital type (58.2% in the prison hospital vs. 34.0% in the private hospital), and enrollment year (68.2% in 2012-2014 vs. 30.0% in 2021-2022) were independently associated with HCV seropositivity. Among the HCV-seropositive PWID, 90.5% (134/148) were diagnosed with HCV infection; however, only 6.8% (10/148) received HCV treatment. The hepatitis B virus surface antigen and human immunodeficiency virus antibody positivity were 4.0% (14/352) and 1.9% (6/317) in tested PWID, respectively. CONCLUSION: The HCV seroprevalence in PWID was 39.7% with a very low treatment rate, which prompts active measures to test and treat PWID for HCV infection in South Korea.

Hepatic hemangioma: proportion and predictor of surgical treatment with emphasis on its growth rate.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: There are limited studies on the management of hepatic hemangiomas (HHs). We investigated the proportion and predictors of surgical resection and analyzed HH growth rates in addition to associated factors. METHODS: A retrospective case-control study of patients treated in 2 centers was conducted. Thirty-six patients who underwent surgical resection were assigned to the case group. Patients who did not undergo surgical treatment were randomly sigselected at a 1:10 ratio and assigned to the control group (n = 360). Baseline characteristics, clinical course and surgical outcomes were analyzed. RESULTS: The proportion of surgically treated HH patients was 0.3% (36 per 11,049). The longest diameter at diagnosis (mean ± standard deviation) was 7.7 ± 5.2 cm in the case group and 2.4 ± 1.8 cm in the control group (p < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the presence of more than 2 HHs (odds ratio [OR] 7.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40-41.72) and a growth rate of more than 4.8%/year (OR 30.73, 95% CI 4.86-194.51) were independently associated with surgical treatment. Symptom development during follow-up was related to HH size > 10 cm (OR 10.50, 95% CI 1.06-103.77, p = 0.04). The subgroup analysis showed substantial growth in 41.3% with an overall mean annual growth rate of 0.14 cm. CONCLUSION: Approximately one in 300 patients with an HH underwent surgical treatment. Multiple HHs and a growth rate of more than 4.8%/year were indications for surgical treatment. Nearly half of the HHs showed growing pattern in our study.

A Silent Outbreak of Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) Infection or False-Positive Reaction of Anti-HEV IgM after COVID-19 Vaccination? Epidemiological Investigation of an Outbreak in a Korean Factory Complex in 2022.

Background/Aims: To investigate a reported outbreak of presumed hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection in a Korean food manufacturing facility and to explore the association between anti-HEV immunoglobulin M (IgM) positivity and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection or vaccination. Methods: Twenty-four cases of anti-HEV IgM positivity were reported among 646 workers at the facility in 2022. An epidemiological investigation was conducted, comprising HEV-RNA testing of blood and environmental samples, analysis of group meal records, and an association between anti-HEV IgM positivity and confirmed COVID-19 infection or vaccination. Results: All 24 patients were asymptomatic, with cases spread sporadically across the facility. HEV RNA was not detected in the serum or environmental samples. Four out of 340 meals (1.2%) showed a significantly higher proportion of anti-HEV positivity in each meal intake group than in the non-intake group on certain days. Although the cumulative rate of COVID-19 infection showed no difference, the anti-HEV IgM positive group showed significantly higher proportions of >2 doses of COVID-19 vaccination (83.3% vs 48.7%, p=0.021), vaccination within 90 days (45.8% vs 19.7%, p=0.008), and having the Moderna vaccine administered as the last vaccine (75.0% vs 14.5%, p<0.001) than those of the anti-HEV negative group. In four multivariable models, three or more COVID-19 vaccinations and the Moderna vaccine as the last vaccine were consistently associated with anti-HEV IgM positivity, while the specific day group meal intake was also a significant factor. Conclusions: This epidemiological investigation showed that anti-HEV IgM positivity may occur as a false-positive result related to COVID-vaccination over three times and use of the Moderna vaccine, although a portion of true HEV infection may not be excluded.

Prevalence, incidence, and outcomes of hepatitis E virus coinfection in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

This study aimed to elucidate the anti-hepatitis E virus (HEV) immunoglobulin G (IgG) prevalence and incidence of seroconversion and seroreversion as well as its risk factors and to analyze the clinical outcomes of HEV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfected patients compared to those of HCV-monoinfected patients. We prospectively enrolled 502 viremic HCV patients with paired plasma samples (at intervals of ≥ 12 months) from 5 tertiary hospitals. Anti-HEV IgG positivity was tested using the Wantai ELISA kit in all paired samples. Mean age was 58.2 ± 11.5 years old, 48.2% were male, 29.9% of patients had liver cirrhosis, and 9.4% of patients were diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The overall prevalence of anti-HEV IgG positivity at enrollment was 33.3%, with a higher prevalence in males and increasing prevalence according to the subject's age. During the 916.4 person-year, the HEV incidence rate was 0.98/100 person-years (9/335, 2.7%). Hepatic decompensation or liver-related mortality was not observed. There were six seroreversion cases among 172 anti-HEV-positive patients (1.22/100 person-years). In conclusion, approximately one-third of the adult Korean chronic HCV patients were anti-HEV IgG positive. The HEV incidence rate was 1 in 100 persons per year, without adverse hepatic outcomes or mortality.

Etiology and clinical characteristics of acute viral hepatitis in South Korea during 2020-2021: a prospective multicenter study.

This prospective, 12-center study investigated the etiology and clinical characteristics of acute viral hepatitis (AVH) during 2020-2021 in South Korea, and the performance of different diagnostic methods for hepatitis E virus (HEV). We enrolled 428 patients with acute hepatitis, of whom 160 (37.4%) were diagnosed with AVH according to predefined serologic criteria. The clinical data and risk factors for AVH were analyzed. For hepatitis E patients, anti-HEV IgM and IgG were tested with two commercial ELISA kits (Abia and Wantai) with HEV-RNA real-time RT-PCR. HAV, HEV, HBV, HCV, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex virus accounted for AVH in 78.8% (n = 126), 7.5% (n = 12), 3.1% (n = 5), 1.9% (n = 3), 6.9% (n = 11), 1.2% (n = 2), and 0.6% (n = 1) of 160 patients (median age, 43 years; men, 52.5%; median ALT, 2144 IU/L), respectively. Hospitalization, hemodialysis, and intensive care unit admission were required in 137 (86.7%), 5 (3.2%), and 1 (0.6%) patient, respectively. Two patients developed acute liver failure (1.3%), albeit without mortality or liver transplantation. Ingestion of uncooked clams/oysters and wild boars' blood/bile was reported in 40.5% and 16.7% of patients with HAV and HEV, respectively. The concordance rate between the anti-HEV-IgM results of both ELISA kits was 50%. HEV RNA was detected in only 17% of patients with HEV. The diagnosis of HEV needs clinical consideration due to incomplete HEV diagnostics.

Core indicators related to the elimination of hepatitis B and C virus infection in South Korea: A nationwide study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To eliminate hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) according to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria in 2021, this study investigated the national core indicators representing the current status of viral hepatitis B and C in South Korea. METHODS: We analyzed the incidence, linkage-to-care, treatment, and mortality rates of HBV and HCV infection using the integrated nationwide big data of South Korea. RESULTS: According to data from 2018-2020, the incidence of acute HBV infection in South Korea was 0.71 cases per 100,000 population; tthe linkage-to-care rate was only 39.4%. Among those who need hepatitis B treatment, the treatment rate was 67.3%, which was less than 80% reported in the WHO program index. The annual liver-related mortality due to HBV was 18.85 cases per 100,000 population, exceeding the WHO target of four; the most frequent cause of death was liver cancer (54.1%). The annual incidence of newly diagnosed HCV infection was 11.9 cases per 100,000 population, which was higher than the WHO impact target of five. Among HCV-infected patients, the linkage-to-care rate was 65.5% while the treatment rate was 56.8%, which were below the targets of 90% and 80%, respectively. The liver-related annual mortality rate due to HCV infection was 2.02 cases per 100,000 population. CONCLUSION: Many of the current indicators identified in the Korean population did not satisfy the WHO criteria for validation of viral hepatitis elimination. Hence, a comprehensive national strategy should be urgently developed with continuous monitoring of the targets in South Korea.

Hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensation, and mortality based on hepatitis C treatment: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective studies of the long-term outcomes of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection after treatment with interferon-based therapy (IBT) or direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are limited in many Asian countries. AIM: To elucidate the incidences of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death/transplantation based on treatment with IBT or DAA, to compare the outcomes of the sustained virologic response (SVR) to IBT and DAA, and to investigate outcome-determining factors after SVR. METHODS: This cohort included 2054 viremic patients (mean age, 57 years; 46.5% male; 27.4% with cirrhosis) prospectively enrolled at seven hospitals between 2007 and 2019. They were classified as the untreated group (n = 619), IBT group (n = 578), and DAA group (n = 857). Outcomes included the incidences of HCC and death/transplantation. The incidences of the outcomes for each group according to treatment were calculated using an exact method based on the Poisson distribution. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the factors associated with HCC or death/transplantation, followed by propensity score matching to confirm the results. RESULTS: During a median of 4.1 years of follow-up, HCC and death/transplantation occurred in 113 and 206 patients, respectively, in the entire cohort. Compared with the untreated group, the incidences of HCC and death/transplantation were significantly lower in the IBT group [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.47, 95%CI: 0.28-0.80 and aHR 0.28, 95%CI: 0.18-0.43, respectively] and the DAA group (aHR 0.58, 95%CI: 0.35-0.96, and aHR 0.19, 95%CI: 0.20-0.68, respectively). Among 1268 patients who attained SVR with IBT (n = 451) or DAA (n = 816), the multivariable-adjusted analysis showed no differences in the risks of HCC (HR 2.03; 95%CI: 0.76-5.43) and death/transplantation (HR 1.38; 95%CI: 0.55-3.49) between the two groups. This was confirmed by a propensity score-matching analysis. Independent factors for HCC after SVR were age, genotype 1, and the presence of cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Treatment and achieving SVR with either IBT or DAA significantly reduced the incidences of HCC and mortality in the Asian patients with HCV infection. The risks of HCC and mortality were not significantly different regardless of whether SVR was induced by IBT or DAA.

Metformin administration is associated with enhanced response to transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma in type 2 diabetes patients.

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is often used as a locoregional therapy for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) when local ablation or resection are not feasible, but incomplete response and recurrence are commonly observed. In this study, we sought to determine the association between metformin administration and TACE outcomes for single nodular HCC in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The retrospective cohort analysis included 164 T2DM patients with single nodular HCC who underwent TACE as an initial treatment, and 91 were exposed to metformin before and after TACE. Propensity score (PS) matching was used to balance covariates. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of tumor response after TACE, and Cox regression analysis assessed independent predictors of local tumor recurrence (LTR) in patients with complete response after TACE. Metformin use was associated with significantly higher objective response rate (ORR) in the overall and PS-matched cohort (79.1% vs. 60.3 and 78.7% vs. 57.5%; p = 0.008 and p = 0.029, respectively). Logistic regression analysis showed that metformin use was an independent predictor of ORR in all and PS-matched patients (odds ratio = 2.65 and 3.06; p = 0.016 and 0.034, respectively). Cox regression analysis showed metformin administration was an independent predictor for lower LTR in all and PS-matched patients (hazard ratio = 0.28 and 0.27; p = 0.001 and 0.007, respectively). Metformin administration is associated with better initial response and lower local recurrence after TACE for single nodular HCC in T2DM.

Incidence and Pattern of Aminotransferase Elevation During Anti-Hypertensive Therapy With Angiotensin-II Receptor Blockers.

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin type II receptor blockers (ARBs) are the most widely used anti-hypertensive drugs. This study aimed to elucidate the likelihood and pattern of ARB-induced liver injury in a hospital-based cohort. METHODS: Data of patients receiving fimasartan (n = 5,543), candesartan (n = 6,406), valsartan (n = 6,040), and losartan (n = 9,126) were retrieved from the clinical data warehouse of two tertiary hospitals. Patients with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels > 5 times the upper normal limit were assessed according to the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM). RESULTS: A total of 27,115 patients were enrolled, including 14,630 (54.0%) men, with a mean age of 64.6 years (standard deviation, 13.6). During 31,717 person-years of ARB therapy, serum ALT levels > 120 IU/L were found in 558 (2.1%) person-years, and levels > 200 IU/L were found in 155 (0.6%) person-years. The incidence of ALT elevation > 120 IU/L per 106 cumulative defined daily doses was 6.6, 3.6, 3.9, and 4.0 in the fimasartan, candesartan, valsartan, and losartan groups, respectively (P = 0.002). An ALT level > 200 IU/L with RUCAM score ≥ 6 was found in 20 patients, suggesting probable drug-induced liver injury for 11 (0.2%) patients receiving fimasartan, five (0.1%) receiving candesartan, four (0.1%) receiving valsartan, and none receiving losartan (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Approximately 2% of patients receiving ARB therapy had significant ALT elevation (4.24/106 cumulative defined daily doses [cDDDs]), which was associated with probable ARB-related liver injury in 0.07% of patients (0.15/106 cDDDs). Elevation of ALT was more commonly associated with fimasartan than the other ARBs. Clinicians should be aware of the possibility of ARB-related ALT elevation in patients with unexplained chronic abnormal ALT.

Elevated alpha-fetoprotein in asymptomatic adults: Clinical features, outcome, and association with body composition.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Apparently healthy individuals with elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels (>7 ng/mL) for unknown causes visit clinics. We investigated their clinical characteristics, outcomes, and relationship with body fat deposition and muscle mass. METHODS: The case group included asymptomatic 137 individuals with "elevated AFP level" (R772) diagnostic code from 2009 to 2018 in a tertiary hospital. The control group enrolled 274 age- and sex-matched patients with <5 cm hepatic hemangiomas. Hepatic, visceral, and psoas muscle adiposity and psoas muscle index (PMI) were measured in the subgroups of 45 cases and 90 controls with pre-contrast computed tomography (CT) images. RESULTS: The case group (mean age 47.5 years, male 35.8%) showed higher AFP levels (10.3 vs 2.5 ng/mL, p<0.001) and total bilirubin (0.8 vs 0.7 mg/dL, p<0.001), but a lower body mass index (22.2 vs 23.3 kg/m2, p = 0.011) and alanine aminotransferase levels (17.0 vs 19.0 IU/L, p = 0.047) than the controls. During 13 months of median follow-up, there was no cancer or liver disease development. The AFP levels were stable. In the subgroups with CT images, cases showed a lower proportion of hepatic steatosis (4.4% vs 18.9%, p = 0.023), higher psoas muscle attenuation (48.2 vs 43.8 Hounsfield units, p<0.001) and higher PMI (5.7 vs 4.2 cm2/m2, p<0.001) than the controls. CONCLUSION: Elevated AFP levels in asymptomatic individuals may play a role in expressing a protective phenotype against hepatic steatosis, myosteatosis, and sarcopenia. AFP levels in patients with elevated AFP were stable during follow-up without liver injury or cancer development. Interaction between AFP expression and steatosis warrants further study.

A scoring system for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in alcoholic cirrhosis.

The role of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is being questioned in alcoholic cirrhosis because of the relative low HCC risk. This study aimed to assess the risk and predictors of HCC in Korean patients with alcoholic cirrhosis by using competing risk analysis. A total of 745 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis were recruited at a university-affiliated hospital in Korea and randomly assigned to either the derivation (n = 507) and validation (n = 238) cohort. Subdistribution hazards model of Fine and Gray was used with deaths and liver transplantation treated as competing risks. Death records were confirmed from Korean government databases. A nomogram was developed to calculate the Alcohol-associated Liver Cancer Estimation (ALICE) score. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 15.3 and 13.3% at 10 years for derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, alpha-fetoprotein level, and albumin level were identified as independent predictors of HCC and incorporated in the ALICE score, which discriminated low, intermediate, and high risk for HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis at the cut-off of 60 and 100. The risk of HCC can be stratified by using a combination of readily available clinical parameters (age, AFP level, and albumin level) in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma with Budd-Chiari syndrome due to membranous obstruction of the inferior vena cava with long-term follow-up: a case report.

Membranous obstruction of the inferior vena cava (MOVC) is a rare subset of Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) with a subacute onset that is often complicated by cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here we report a case of recurrent HCC in a patient with cirrhosis and BCS that was treated with several episodes of transarterial chemoembolization followed by surgical tumorectomy, whereas the MOVC was successfully treated with balloon angioplasty followed by endovascular stenting. The patient was followed up for 9.9 years without anticoagulation and experienced no stent thrombosis. After the tumorectomy, the patient was HCC-free for 4.4 years of follow-up.

Comparison of biochemical response during antiviral treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis B infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This multicenter cohort study aimed to compare the real-world biochemical response rates during tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and entecavir (ETV) treatment in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection patients. METHODS: Overall, 1282 treatment-naïve patients with CHB who commenced TAF (n = 270), TDF (n = 617), or ETV (n = 395) were analysed for biochemical response rates during the antiviral treatment using a time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model after the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: Patients treated with ETV were older (55.1 ± 11.5 years) than TAF or TDF (P < .0001). ETV was more frequently prescribed to patients with diabetes mellitus (DM, P = .003), hypertension (P < .0001), chronic kidney disease (P < .0001), and negative e-antigen (P < .0001). Cumulative biochemical response rate was independently lower in patients with radiologic fatty liver (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.94) and obese patients without DM (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.68-0.98) according to multivariable Cox analyses based on time-dependent variables after IPTW for age, sex, liver cirrhosis, baseline e-antigen, ALT, and HBV DNA levels. ETV treated patients (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.13-1.68) showed higher biochemical response rates compared with TAF- or TDF-treated patients after adjusting for similar parameters. CONCLUSIONS: In real-world practice, ETV was preferable for older, hepatitis B e-antigen negative patients with underlying comorbidities. Biochemical responses in patients treated with ETV, TAF, and TDF were significantly affected by metabolic factors such as fatty liver, obesity, and DM. However, the mechanism behind the higher biochemical response rate in patients treated with ETV should be investigated further.

Prognostic role of plasma level of angiopoietin-1, angiopoietin-2, and vascular endothelial growth factor in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Most hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) are hypervascular, with characteristic features of hepatic arterial supply to the tumor. The factors involved in tumor angiogenesis include angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1), angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). AIM: To investigate the profiles of plasma levels of angiogenesis markers in patients with HCC and evaluate their roles in predicting overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). METHODS: Plasma samples from 240 prospectively enrolled HCC patients in the very early to advanced stages were used to measure the levels of Ang-1, Ang-2, and VEGF. Their associations with clinical characteristics, OS, and PFS were analyzed. RESULTS: The median plasma levels of Ang-1, Ang-2, and VEGF were 3216 pg/mL, 1684 pg/mL, and 26.5 pg/mL, respectively. The plasma level of Ang-2 showed a significant increase from early stage [Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) A] to intermediate (BCLC B) and advanced stage HCC (BCLC C/D), whereas Ang-1, VEGF, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels in the plasma did not show any such changes. Multivariable analysis, propensity score-matched analysis, and time-dependent receiver operating curve analysis revealed that Ang-2 levels had the highest predictive power for OS and PFS. Neither Ang-1 nor VEGF was significantly associated with OS or PFS. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was an independent factor for OS and PFS. CONCLUSION: The plasma levels of Ang-2 correlated with liver function, tumor stage, and tumor invasiveness, showing better performance in predicting OS and PFS than AFP, Ang-1, or VEGF.

Sarcopenia and visceral adiposity predict poor overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after curative hepatic resection.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the association of 3 components of body composition (sarcopenia, intramuscular fat deposition and visceral adiposity) with the overall or recurrence-free survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent curative hepatic resection. METHODS: One hundred sixty newly diagnosed and surgically treated HCC patients were retrospectively enrolled from 2003 to 2011. Three items of body composition were measured using the 3rd lumbar level image of preoperative computed tomography (CT): psoas muscle index (PMI), psoas muscle attenuation (PMA), and visceral adipose tissue index (VATI). Sex-specific optimal cut-off for each item was determined from receiver-operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: The HCC patients showed a median age of 55 years, 75% of male, 78% of hepatitis B surface antigen positivity, and 96% of Child-Pugh A. The sarcopenic group (PMI less than the sex-specific cutoff of 3.33 cm2/m2 for men and 2.38 cm2/m2 for women) had 17.5% of the patients with a lower PMA (more fat deposition) but similar VATI compared to the non-sarcopenic group. PMI showed a positive correlation with PMA (ρ=0.493, P<0.001), while there was no significant correlation between PMI and VATI, and between PMA and VATI. On the multivariate analysis, a high PMI and low VATI were independent factors affecting overall survival while PMA was not. Nevertheless, PMI and VATI were not independent factors for recurrence-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: In curatively resected HCC patients, sarcopenia and high visceral adiposity predict poor overall survival but not recurrence-free survival, while PMA did not predict overall survival.

Development of machine learning-based clinical decision support system for hepatocellular carcinoma.

There is a significant discrepancy between the actual choice for initial treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and recommendations from the currently used BCLC staging system. We develop a machine learning-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) for recommending initial treatment option in HCC and predicting overall survival (OS). From hospital records of 1,021 consecutive patients with HCC treated at a single centre in Korea between January 2010 and October 2010, we collected information on 61 pretreatment variables, initial treatment, and survival status. Twenty pretreatment key variables were finally selected. We developed the CDSS from the derivation set (N = 813) using random forest method and validated it in the validation set (N = 208). Among the 1,021 patients (mean age: 56.9 years), 81.8% were male and 77.0% had positive hepatitis B BCLC stages 0, A, B, C, and D were observed in 13.4%, 26.0%, 18.0%, 36.6%, and 6.3% of patients, respectively. The six multi-step classifier model was developed for treatment decision in a hierarchical manner, and showed good performance with 81.0% of accuracy for radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or resection versus not, 88.4% for RFA versus resection, and 76.8% for TACE or not. We also developed seven survival prediction models for each treatment option. Our newly developed HCC-CDSS model showed good performance in terms of treatment recommendation and OS prediction and may be used as a guidance in deciding the initial treatment option for HCC.

The association of the serum levels of myostatin, follistatin, and interleukin-6 with sarcopenia, and their impacts on survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The role of serum myokine levels in sarcopenia and the outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients are not clear. This study investigated the serum levels of myostatin, follistatin, and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in HCC patients and their association with sarcopenia and survival. METHODS: Using prospectively collected pretreatment samples from 238 HCC patients in a hospital from 2012 to 2015, the serum levels of 3 myokines were determined and compared to 50 samples from age and sex-matched healthy controls. Sarcopenia was evaluated using the psoas muscle index (PMI) measured at the third lumbar level in the computed tomography, and clinical data were collected until 2017. RESULTS: The median levels of the 3 myokines for the male and female HCC patients were as follow: myostatin (3,979.3 and 2,976.3 pg/mL), follistatin (2,118.5 and 2,174.6 pg/mL), and IL-6 (2.5 and 2.7 pg/mL), respectively. Those in the HCC patients were all significantly higher than in the healthy controls. In the HCC patient, the median PMI was 4.43 (males) and 2.17 cm2/m2 (females) with a sarcopenic prevalence of 56.4%. The serum levels of myostatin, IL-6 and follistatin in the HCC patients showed a positive, negative, and no correlation with PMI, respectively. The serum follistatin level was an independent factor for poor survival in HCC patients. CONCLUSION: The serum levels of myostatin, follistatin, and IL-6 and their correlation with sarcopenia and survival were presented in HCC patients for the first time. The role of the serum follistatin level as a poor prognostic biomarker warrants further study.